Ten thousand simulations before kick-off.
Lexus reads what is known about a football match — form, availability, home and away splits, head-to-head, rest days — plays the fixture ten thousand times, and publishes the probability of each outcome. The method is written down and open to read.
- One payment, no renewal
- Access right after purchase
- 12 months of access
Example projection. Every number moves as new data arrives.
Competitions covered
Premier LeagueLa LigaSerie ABundesligaLigue 1Primeira LigaEredivisieChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueBrasileirão Série ACopa LibertadoresNational cupsA probability, not an opinion.
Every fixture gets the same treatment: the outcomes that came out of the simulation, how often each one came out, and the count behind it. Nothing is rounded into a slogan.
- Win, draw and loss — the share of simulations that ended each way
- Most likely scoreline — with the exact frequency, not a guess
- Goal expectancy — for each side, and for the match
| Home win | 46.2% |
| Draw | 26.9% |
| Away win | 26.9% |
| Over one goal each | 58.1% |
The whole match, in numbers you can compare.
Live scores while the match is running, and the statistics that explain the result once it ends. The same layout for every competition, so two fixtures can be read side by side.
- Live scores — goals, cards and substitutions as they happen
- Team and player statistics — shots, possession, shot quality, discipline
- Form and head-to-head — the last matches that actually inform the next one
Everything published stays on the record.
A projection is published before the match and never edited afterwards. The history keeps what was said, what happened, and the distance between the two.
- Published before kick-off — with a timestamp that cannot move
- Checked against the result — match by match, competition by competition
- Open to anyone with access — the record is part of the product
| Sat · Premier League | 4 published | 3 correct |
| Sat · La Liga | 3 published | 2 correct |
| Sun · Serie A | 4 published | 3 correct |
| Sun · Primeira Liga | 2 published | 1 correct |
How a projection is made
Three steps, in this order, for every fixture. The order matters: what goes in decides what can come out.
The known goes in
Results, line-ups and availability, minutes played, days of rest, home and away splits, head-to-head, competition weight. Public data, refreshed through the day.
The match is played ten thousand times
The simulation keeps what is known fixed and varies what is uncertain. Each run ends in a scoreline, and ten thousand runs end in ten thousand scorelines.
You read the distribution
What came out most often becomes the probability on the screen — with the count that produced it, so the number can be checked instead of believed.
What goes into the model
Written out, because a number you cannot interrogate is a number you should not trust. The full methodology is inside the app, on its own page.
What Lexus is not
Said plainly, so nobody buys the wrong thing.
- It does not tell you what to do with a number. It publishes the number.
- It does not promise a result. A 74% chance is wrong one time in four, and that is the point of a probability.
- It is not a financial product and gives no financial advice.
- It does not sell, rent or share your personal data with anyone.
One price, everything included
No plan to choose, no upgrade to unlock later.
Lexus — full access
- Every projection published while your access is open
- Live scores and match statistics
- The full published history, match by match
- Lexus Room, to run a simulation yourself
- The methodology page, in full
- Phone, tablet and computer — nothing to install
Payment is handled by Digistore24. Access is delivered digitally, by e-mail, right after the purchase is confirmed.
If it is not for you, you get your money back
You do not owe anyone an explanation. Write to contato@ruyter.com inside the period and the payment is returned. The full conditions are on the Refund Policy page.
Questions people actually ask
What exactly am I buying?
Do I need to install anything?
Is this a subscription?
How accurate is it?
Which competitions do you cover?
Can I get a refund?
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Who do I write to?
The next fixture is already being simulated.
Every match on the calendar gets the same ten thousand runs, published before kick-off and kept on the record afterwards.